Thought Chasm

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Posts Tagged ‘oscar predictions’

2011 Oscar Predictions »

Sunday, February 20th, 2011

So, the posts are thin here at the Chasm but I couldn’t let next week’s show go by without putting in my few cents (one less than last year). Below are my picks, the likely winners and a few comments. You can look back at my predictions over the last four years here. Nominees are here. There should be a follow-up eventually. (more…)

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2010 Oscar Predictions »

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Do you hear the trumpets? If you were reading this on an i[Tab] you’d hear trumpets…

So the nominations are in and, like ’07, ’08 and ’09, I’m here to throw in my four cents. As always, I’ve listed my favorite and the likely winner. These are usually different because I don’t have any vested interest in terrible movies making money from year to year, like some people who will remain nameless (because I don’t know their names).

I’ve even thrown in some underdogs to justify my drinking during the show on March 7th. You can see all the nominees listed at IMDB.

Best Animated Feature:
 My pick: Coraline
Winner: Up

I liked Coraline because the story and animation were more intriguing (scary as all hell, awesome). That won’t matter.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects:
 My pick: Avatar
Winner: Avatar

Every single one of these smaller, technical awards that Avatar is up for will bring home a statue for them. It’s a technical marvel. If only they would stop there…

Best Documentary Feature:
 My pick: Food, Inc.
Winner: Food, Inc.

With the caveat that it’s the only one I’ve seen, it’s also the only one that made money. This is a big deal for an industry trying to look deep with no interest in being deep. It’s a great film in its own right but making a little scratch never hurts your chances in this category.

Best Foreign Language Film:
 My pick: Das weisse Band
Winner: Das weisse Band
Underdog: Un prophète

Again, this is the only one I’ve seen in this category but with all the buzz, it’ll take the statue. And it should (despite many misunderstanding it as a commentary on the social climate that bore Nazism). But maybe the voters will misunderstand Un prophète as “profit” and throw their votes that way.

Best Achievement in Editing:
 My pick: Avatar
Winner: Avatar

Because… uh… it’s Avatar?

Best Achievement in Cinematography:
 My pick: Das weisse Band
Winner: Avatar
Underdog: Inglourious Basterds

Guys, black and white is soo classy, right? (It’s like when there were movies before iPods or the eighties.) That and I don’t want Avatar to take all these damn statues. It’s blatent theft.

Best Screenplay based on Previous Material:
 My pick: Up in the Air
Winner: Up in the Air

Sorry, all, but this one’s too easy. District 9 is great if you’re into sci-fi but most aren’t (which is a fact fans of sci-fi love to forget). Up in the Air is adorable to the point the word is sort of obnoxious and it still worth watching. That’s nearly impossible and deserves some kudos.

Best Original Screenplay:
 My pick: Inglourious Basterds
Winner: The Hurt Locker
Underdog: Up

Inglorious Basterds has no chance at any others, unfortunately. This fact alone should get Tarantino the win but it doesn’t matter because, if the Academy decides to go with Avatar as the Big Winner, Hurt Locker may get the sympathy win here. Also, I liked Up. What of it? (That opening sequence was understated, powerful and made my tiny heart sob.)

Best Achievement in Directing:
 My pick: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
Winner: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
Underdog: Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Basterds)

She has the critics on her side, why bet on anyone else? Avatar was a total tech-gasm but purely on merit, James Cameron just doesn’t get close. He has no nuance or scope and hasn’t directed anything worth watching since 1991. Really, I just hope Tarantino pulls this one out, which would be very… uh… Tarantino? (Except for all the death.)

Best Performance by an Actress, Supporting:
 My pick: Mo’Nique (Precious)
Winner: Mo’Nique (Precious)
Underdog: Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)

Mo’Nique has this and has since the first day she strapped on a bandana and nom-nommed her first chicken wing. That said, Kendrick is a huge part of that obnoxious adorable mentioned earlier. A win here could break her free of the excrutiating hell that is the Twilight series. We here at the Chasm wish her luck.

Best Performance by an Actor, Supporting:
 My pick: Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds)
Winner: Matt Damon (Invictus)

HaHA! Okay, I’m just having fun here. Who the hell gives two shirts about that movie? Rugby? South Africa after Hotel Rwanda? Yawn.

When he puts that glass of milk to his lips… just so… #boom! Oscar. Had this been any other year, Woody Harrelson would have easily taken the prize.

Best Performance by an Actress, Leading:
 My pick: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
Winner: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)

Dear readers, it hurts. The pain of putting Bullock’s name in “ink” is that of a thousand paper cuts. If the paper were on fire. But she’s the only one on this list. Meryl Streep is Meryl Streep and she did a great impression of Ms. Child, I guess. Just not enough to combat the feel-good, sassy-shorts Sandra who came at it with big-haired guns blaring.

Best Performance by an Actor:
 My pick: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
Favorite: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
Underdog: Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

Morgan Freeman‘s impression of Nelson Mendela is great and all, but, like Streep, he doesn’t have a chance. Renner, though, put in a haunted performance and could have won… if it weren’t for Bridges having this one in the bag. It appears those that vote are behind him 110%.

Best Motion Picture:
 My pick: The Hurt Locker
Favorite: Avatar
Underdog: Inglourious Basterds

I wish I could say Hurt Locker, the far better movie, takes home the statue. Unfortunately, bedazzled by the money and effects, Avatar will probably take it. Like Pedobear would were he to have the chance.

Also, this blatant ploy to get a bigger audience involved is desperate and horrifying. The Blind Side? That wasn’t even the best family film of the year, much less the best overall. If movies weren’t already dead I’d say nominating ten movies for the Best Picture would kill them. (Here’s a great article about how Hurt Locker winning could change things quite a bit.)

Photo courtesy About.com

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oscar predictions ’09 »

Friday, February 20th, 2009

… Because the big show is Sunday, I need to get the predictions out there. I mean, only amateurs wait ’til afterward to extol their brilliance. I can extol at the drop of a hat. (::hat drops to floor::)

Titles in italics will probably be winners. Titles in bold are ones I’m pulling for. *s are by ones I haven’t seen.

ANIMATED FEATURE

ORIGINAL SONG

  • Slumdog Millionaire – “Jai Ho”
  • Slumdog Millionaire – “O Saya”
  • WALL-E – “Down to Earth”

EDITING

CINEMATOGRAPHY

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • Doubt
  • Frost/Nixon *
  • The Reader
  • Slumdog Millionaire

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

DIRECTING

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

SUPPORTING ACTOR

ACTRESS

ACTOR

PICTURE

  • The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • Frost/Nixon
  • Milk
  • The Reader
  • Slumdog Millionaire

I doubt I’ll be as victorious as last year (sarcasm) but one can hope I’ll catch a few. It wasn’t a good season (tons of repeats on here) but the ones listed were fairly solid. (As you can tell from the above, I’m quite partial to Slumdog Millionaire.)

I know you can’t wait ’til the recap to fully appreciate my genius. I know it. (Delusion is the first step toward success, right?)

In case you think you’re smarter than I am (and probably are), pick a category or two and lay out your prediction in the comments. We’ll see on Monday who emerges with the prize.*

* There is no prize.

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predictions ’08 »

Saturday, February 9th, 2008

The nominees in bold are my predicted winners. The paragraph following the categories is my justification and maybe my personal favorite. Feel free to tell me I’m an idiot. The “academy” seems to dislike movies as a whole, so I tend to be off the mark.

It’s about that time again. We’re only a few short weeks from the big show and I figure I’m due to weigh in. Of the categories listed (the ones I think are important enough to throw in here), I’ve seen all but two films, Elizabeth: the golden age (because it looks terrible) and the assassination of jesse james (because it’s hard as hell to find). There is very little thought and almost no analysis associated with this post and the statements therein (just my opinion as a cinephile).

Best Cinematography:
Assassination of Jesse James
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
There Will Be Blood

Purely for the brilliant angles and gorgeous use of lighting, focus, and perspective that made this film watchable, Diving Bell should dominate this category. The possible trump is No Country, but that’ll win in other categories. The movie was intentionally slow, but visually stunning.

Best Writing, adaptation:
Atonement
Away from Her
Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

I had trouble with this one. Diving Bell was a great adaptation and No Country was pretty spot on to the theme, tone, and what I imagined from the book. I haven’t read Oil! (because it’s old and long), but it’s an awesome movie, so I’m handing it to them. I’m about as confident in this category as I would be in predicting the next election or the sex of your next child. Take it as you will.

Best Writing, original:
Juno
Lars and the Real Girlfriend
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

Juno has the big push, because Diablo was a stripper and she’s new and hip and all that. The movie was hilarious (I just watched it again this morning) and the characters were solid, but overall, I think Savages was a heavier movie. The dialog was smart and the characters were impressive. They had more depth. Lars was good, but stretched the “he’s dating a doll” jokes about as thin as could possibly be spread.

Best Directing:
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Ethan, Joel Coen – No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman – Juno
Julian Schnabel – Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The film was solid. The Coen brothers nailed it and deserve the statue. At this point, there will be blood winning would be an upset. Julian, solid show, but not this year. Juno could probably win an m.t.v. movie award.

Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Ruby Dee – American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

My personal favorite is Amy Ryan, but she’s not getting any credit this year. Her role was difficult, her character was enigmatic, and her portrayal stole the screen. Cate’s always solid, so this is almost a given because I don’t think they’ll give Ruby the award like the S.A.G.s did. Can someone tell me why Saoirse is nominated?

Best Supporting Actor:
Casey Affleck – Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton

Dear Tom, any other year you would take this award by mail. You could tape all your acceptance speeches and mail them as needed. Alas, this is the wrong year. Even against the younger Affleck and Holbrook you could have skated through the entire awards season. Please be appreciative of your nomination and kindly hand your statue to Bardem. Thank you.

Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie – Away from Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney – The Savages
Ellen Page – Juno

Page could have had this one as much as Linney could have, but neither can stand up to the powerhouse that is Christie. She’s rocked through the awards season just like Bardem has. In a sea of locks, she’s the lockiest. Her performance was haunting. I doubt she’ll find a role as solid as this again.

Best Actor:
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortenson – Eastern Promises

I get it, Depp sings in his role, Clooney’s the cool asshole in his and Viggo attempts a Russian accent in his. They should be nominated and all that. Jones was solid in an underrated movie. But, Day-Lewis is just too good. The character, the intensity, the gravitation. Unreal.

and…
Best Picture:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

I know, I know, No Country should have this one. They probably will, but I’m holding out for a crash-esque upset at the last minute. Clayton is awesome, but slightly harder to follow. Atonement had a terrible ending. Juno is a comedy. They’re all factored out. The remaining two are awesome. They both, along with the un-nominated Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead, depict the fallibility and corruption of man. They’re both impressively depressing. They both have stellar acting and a strong message. So, I guess what I’m saying is that they’re both alike in a lot of ways, but Blood does it better.

The rest of the categories aren’t that interesting, but what happened with blood not being nominated for best original score? The music was incredible. Assholes.

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Oscar Predictions »

Wednesday, February 7th, 2007

So it’s that time of year again. Only a couple more weeks. The big show. and here are some predictions. This year was harder because i ended up liking quite a few of the movies and saw all but notes on a scandal. So they were tough choices, but here goes. I put in my favorites as well as some long shots i could see winning.

Best picture:
The Queen
Favorite:
Departed
Long Shot:
Letters from Iwo Jima

Best Actor:
Forest Whitaker
Favorite:
Forest Whitaker
Long Shot:
Peter O’Toole

Best Actress:
Helen Mirren
Favorite:
Helen Mirren
Long Shot:
Kate Winslet

Best Supporting Actor:
Eddie Murphy
Favorite:
Djimon Hounsou
Long Shot:
Alan Arkin

Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Hudson
Favorite:
Jennifer Hudson – ’cause there’s no one else
Long Shot:
Cate Blanchett

Best Direction:
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Favorite:
Martin Scorsese
Long Shot:
Stephen Frears

Best Screenplay:
El Laberinto del Fauno
Favorite:
Babel
Long Shot:
Little Miss Sunshine

Best Screenplay Based on Previous Material:
The Departed
Favorite:
The Departed
Long Shot:
Little Children

Best Cinematography:
El Laberinto del Fauno
Favorite:
Children of Men
Long Shot:
The Illusionist

Best Editing:
Children of Men
Favorite:
Children of Men
Long Shot:
The Departed

Best Art Direction:
El Laberinto del Fauno
Favorite:
The Good Shepherd
Long Shot:
The Prestige

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